There’s No Rift In Anaheim

Posted on May 18, 2012 by admin

Speculation about a rift between Angels’ manager Mike Scioscia and the new GM Jerry Dipoto rose greatly when—to the displeasure of Scioscia—hitting coach Mickey Hatcher was fired earlier this week. The two are clearly not on the same page as to how a club should be run. The chain-of-command that had been present with the Angels for Scioscia’s entire tenure is broken. The slow start combined with these structural changes could lead to a parting of the ways following the season.

It’s understandable from both perspectives.

Athletes in general will try to exert their will over their titular “boss”. In today’s game, there are no managers with the cachet to do and say whatever they want; to discipline their players; to run the club as if they’re in complete command. The days of Earl Weaver ruling his Orioles with an iron fist are long gone. Back then, Weaver was going nowhere. Everyone in the Orioles clubhouse knew it and reacted accordingly. Scioscia himself spent his entire playing career with the Dodgers and Tom Lasorda who was similarly entrenched.

It’s the way it’s been with the Angels for his managerial tenure.

But with a new GM and new club construction come changes everywhere—not just in payroll and playing style. Angels’ owner Arte Moreno had businesslike intentions when he signed Albert Pujols. After signing Pujols, the Angels agreed to a lucrative television contract with Fox Sports worth $3 billion for 20 years. He’s turned the Angels into a cash machine as George Steinbrenner did with the Yankees. But in the process, Moreno unwittingly made his cohesive club into a 1980s version of the Yankees with the requisite expectations of immediate gratification and demands to “do something” if those expectations aren’t met.

Hiring Dipoto as the GM was well-received following the resignation of Tony Reagins. Reagins’s tenure is pockmarked by the disastrous trade of Mike Napoli for Vernon Wells and his public firing of respected scouting director Eddie Bane, but Reagins also did many good things as Angels’ GM by signing Torii Hunter and trading for Mark Teixeira.

DiPoto is more of a stat-based, coldly analytical GM than Reagins and his predecessor Bill Stoneman were, but he does it with scouting savvy and the ability to express himself to the media and get his point across with the various factions that permeate an organization in today’s game.

But he wasn’t an “Angel”. He didn’t come up through the ranks with the Angels. He hasn’t been working with Scioscia, nor is he a part of the Angels’ culture. A new GM brings in a new set of principles and it’s clear that Dipoto won’t adhere to the oft-heard lament, “This is how we’ve always done it.” Time will tell whether that’s right or wrong, but from Scioscia’s point-of-view, his power base is gone and with it is a large amount of the sway he held in the clubhouse as a result of being seen not just as the manager, but as a boss.

For a manager like Scioscia to have his hand-picked hitting coach fired out from under him is emasculating, but the firing also altered his perception. The same players who kept inner turmoil in house and had each other’s backs are seeing the new dynamic of me-me-me overtaking the club. And that’s not good.

In order for there to be a rift, there had to have been a connection. With Dipoto and Scioscia, they’re working together; doubtless they respect one another; but they might not be suited to a long-term partnership.

That’s what both men have to decide upon in the next four—and the Angels hope—five months. (A fifth month would mean they made the playoffs.)

Judging by the first month-and-a-half, it’s going to be four. Then the Angels’ foundation will rumble and it won’t be because of an earthquake.

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Mike Francesa’s Rant Against Twitter (With Video)

Posted on May 17, 2012 by admin

Mike Francesa went on a semi-rant about Twitter a few days ago. The clip is below. In short, he’s against the concept.

Given the amount of ridicule Francesa receives on social media and that Twitter is specifically built for the quick witticism and has limited oversight, it’s understandable that he wouldn’t want to partake and, as he put it, wishes it never happened.

Francesa, like most old-school guys would prefer to go back to the late-1950s and a Pax Americana (basically peace on American terms in a Superman “truth, justice and the American way” concept). He openly pines for the long-lost hero of his youth, Mickey Mantle; reminisces about the days in which pitchers would throw at hitters’ heads; and wants reinstitution of the walls that separated people in sports from the common masses.

Part of it is absolute nostalgia and part of it is the marginalization of those who do what he does. Sports commentary was far easier on the commentator in the days of Dick Young, Jimmy Cannon and Tim Cohane when their views were in the newspaper and there were no 24-hour sports talk stations; no ESPN; no MLB package where every game could be watched; and the viewer wasn’t relying on the recaps of the writers and play-by-play of the broadcasters to know what was happening.

Obviously it makes his job harder when he says something totally ignorant like “I don’t know how much Andrew McCutchen is gonna hit” as if McCutchen is a sprinter placed in a uniform as Renaldo Nehemiah was by Bill Walsh of the San Francisco 49ers. The more the listener knows, the harder a Francesa-type has to work to make sure he’s being factual or, at least, logical.

On some level, I empathize with Francesa. For him to have worked his way up to where he is now—and he did work hard to get where he is now, like him or not—it must be draining to have to interact with people who’ve never picked up a baseball and decided that reading a stat sheet and understanding basic concepts of sabermetrics made them a baseball “expert”.

But he also has to realize that he’s benefited from this new technology. Francesa is known worldwide because of the YES Network simulcast; because of the ability to listen to his show via the web; because of social media sites like Facebook, LinkedIn and yes, Twitter.

Like anything else, it has its drawbacks but there’s nothing that can be done to stop it and complaining about it because of the negatives doesn’t make it worthless. You get out what you put in. Short-term attention grabs are exactly that: short-term. Working to gain and maintain an audience isn’t about splashy statements that may or may not be true or boring ruminations about one’s day, but about providing interesting content. The new mediums are making Francesa have to work harder. And that might be the underlying problem.

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Pitcher Injuries and Hindsight

Posted on May 17, 2012 by admin

What’s the solution when a pitcher gets injured, there’s no specific cause and it’s automatically assumed that it was due to the vague term “workload”?

The Phillies have placed righty Vance Worley on the disabled list with elbow inflammation and the desperate search for a reason is beginning. His MRI has shown no structural damage so it’s not a catastrophic injury—Delaware Online.

How does anyone know the cause? And what were they supposed to do about it?

While pitching at Single A in 2009, Worley threw 153 innings at the age of 21.

With Double A, Triple A and a cup of coffee the big leagues in 2010, Worley threw 171 innings at age 22.

In 2011, Worley began the season in Triple A, logged 50 innings and was called up to the big leagues and added 131 innings to make his total 181.

Is this considered abuse?

The Phillies were conscious of Worley’s pitch counts and took care to make sure he wasn’t pushed too far with a general pitch limit between 100 and 110. In a rotation with Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, there were no expectations for Worley to be the ace of the staff. He was able to fade into the background as the fourth or fifth starter and learn his craft without the team’s hopes riding on him.

A clear case of a pitcher who was abused in his rookie season was Kerry Wood. In 1998, Wood was a sensation with a blazing fastball and knee-buckling curve. He was consistently left in games to throw 120-130 pitches and led the Cubs to the playoffs—1998 Gamelogs. The weight of carrying a mediocre team resulted in Wood tearing an elbow ligament and needing Tommy John surgery in 1999. It doesn’t take research of stick figures or computer simulations to examine Wood’s history and say that the Cubs overdid it and expedited his injury.

Wood was also a pitcher with mid-to-upper-90s fastball and hard curve with a severe elbow snap to get that nasty break. He might’ve—and probably would’ve—gotten hurt eventually anyway.

With the proliferation of pitching expertise inside and outside of baseball expressing their theories—dutifully detailed on blogs and supposedly reputable websites—a reason for an injury is readily available whether it’s accurate or not. Teams like the Yankees are using medical recommendations to regulate innings and pitch counts in an effort to “develop” their pitchers with the results we see in Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Michael Pineda and Jose Campos.

Who really knows?

The logical end to stopping a workload-related injury to a pitcher would be to limit the workload. But how? What’s the limit? And what to do if the pitcher is needed and he’s approaching his limit? Is the team or the individual more important? How’s that judged?

Throwing a baseball is damaging and there are a myriad of factors that go into a pitcher staying healthy or getting hurt. It’s a zero-sum game. It’s become impossible to develop a pitcher without hundreds of eyes with multiple theories, a forum and no accountability for the outsiders as they wait to pounce and self-promote. Retrospect and hindsight are easily transferred to “prove” whatever theory one prefers to use with pitchers. The Giants didn’t hinder their young starters with limits and have one of the best pitcher developmental programs in baseball.

It’s when one gets hurt that we hear post-injury criticism. The problem is there’s no defense for the charges when the charges are based on after-the-fact theories that are more convenient than diagnostic.

The only answer is to let the pitchers pitch and use common sense. They’re going to get hurt. It’s in the job description and that will never, ever change.

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Hatcher’s Firing Was Inevitable

Posted on May 16, 2012 by admin

In an unavoidable decision, the Angels fired hitting coach Mickey Hatcher—ESPN Story.

I called it on April 30th in the following clip from this posting.

(Arte Moreno’s) not a quick trigger owner, but if (the Angels are) not hitting by mid-May, Hatcher’s gone. This could expose a rift between manager Mike Scioscia and the front office. Scioscia’s influence has been compromised with the hiring of Jerry Dipoto and if one of his handpicked coaches and friends is fired, a true chasm will be evident. Firings will be shots across the bow of Scioscia and, armed with a contract through 2018 (that he can opt-out of after 2015), if he’s unhappy with the changes he’ll let his feelings be known.

There will be talk that Scioscia’s sway over the organization is on the wane. Hatcher has been a coach on Scioscia’s staff since 2000. Twelve years is a long time. Maybe it’s too long.

Outsider speculation is just that. It’s hard to imaging Scioscia wanting to fire his hitting coach and friend, but there could also be an element of realization and pragmatism that something needed to be done. We don’t know whether Scioscia had a heavy hand in the decried decisions the Angels made in the past such as doling lucrative and wasted contracts on Gary Matthews Jr. and Justin Speier and making disastrous trades for Scott Kazmir and Vernon Wells. Scioscia had significant say-so in the team construction and this current group—on offense at least—is not the type of team that Scioscia generally preferred to have. For better or worse, he’s a National League-style manager who learned his trade under Tom Lasorda. What that means is that he liked having starting pitchers who gave him innings, a deep and diverse bullpen with a hard-throwing closer, a few boppers in the middle of the lineup, speed and defense.

Perhaps the failed decisions listed above were what caused the change in course in the front office from the manager having major input and the mandate to say no, to his opinion being taken under advisement with upper management doing what it wants whether the manager is onboard or not.

That’s pretty much how it is throughout baseball no matter who the manager is.

Following the drastic and uncharacteristic acquisition on Albert Pujols, there’s a lack of definition to this current Angels group.

No manager would say no to Pujols and eventually the rest of baseball is going to pay for what Pujols is going through at the moment. He’s not finished. He’s going to hit. But was it a decision that Scioscia would’ve made? Or would have preferred to spend that money elsewhere on a better bullpen? Another starting pitcher? An infielder who can do it all? Given the template of the Angels and what they needed, Jose Reyes was a better fit for the team than Pujols was, but with the new cable network deal on the way and Moreno’s desire to be the focus of Southern California, he wanted the big fish and got him.

The firing of Hatcher is cosmetic. To suggest that anyone aside from Pujols receives credit or blame for what he does on the field is silly. We can’t judge with any certainty how much a hitting coach influences a player when he steps up to the plate. The media will try to anoint certain coaches a mythical, guru status when, in reality, it’s the hitters themselves who do the dirty work. Many times a hitter simply needs someone with whom he connects regardless of the information he’s receiving. If the coach says good morning to him in the right way or gets in the player’s face when necessary, it will be seen as the “turning point”.

Was it a turning point? Or did the hitter just happen to meet the perfect person to make him feel better mentally to go up to the plate in the state he—as the individual—needed to succeed? That state could be anger, it could be peace or it could be anything. We don’t know.

Did Charlie Lau make George Brett or was Brett going to shine through with or without Lau?

Did Lou Piniella’s adjustments with Don Mattingly convincing Mattingly to try and pull the inside pitches over the short right field wall at Yankee Stadium create Donnie Baseball or would he have done it once he grew comfortable in the big leagues?

Hitting coaches like Rudy Jaramillo have been lauded and hired amid great fanfare and not helped at all in the bottom line.

The hitting coach is a convenient scapegoat to wake up the team, to put forth the pretense of “doing something” and to send a message to the manager.

In the case of the Angels, it’s probably all three.

It might not help, but given the talent on the roster, they certainly can’t be much more of a disappointment than they’ve already been.

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The Yankees’ Closer Decision Is Made For Them

Posted on May 15, 2012 by admin

You remember quarterback Matt Leinart, don’t you?

The former number 1 draft pick of the Arizona Cardinals and college superstar who has shown neither the aptitude nor the desire to be a starting quarterback in the NFL finally got his chance to play for a team—the Houston Texans—that had a very real Super Bowl chance.

Leinart took over for the injured Matt Schaub with the Texans at 7-3, heading for a division title and with the smothering defense that could’ve given them a conference championship. Leinart started his first game on November 27, 2011 and began by completing 10 of his first 13 passes with a touchdown. Then he was tackled and broke his collarbone on the play. His season was over.

This isn’t to imply that Leinart was happy to be injured, but given his reputation, he’s put forth the impression that he prefers partying to playing; that being the backup was just easier and safer.

Everyone needs an adequate number 2 and many times, the number 1 doesn’t want someone standing behind him who may or may not be holding a knife.

Leinart is content as a backup.

(Note: Yesterday, Leinart signed with the Oakland Raiders to be the number 2 behind Carson Palmer.)

We’ll never know whether David Robertson was overwhelmed with the prospect of replacing a legend as the closer for a team that judges any season that doesn’t end with a World Series win as an abject failure. But now he’s on the disabled list with a strained oblique and Rafael Soriano is taking over—officially—as the Yankees’ closer.

It’s the move they should’ve made from the beginning.

Was Robertson ever named the closer to replace Mariano Rivera or were the Yankees giving him a try before committing to him?

He’s being referred to as “Yankees’ closer” in the news reports detailing the injury, but their actions made it appear that he was taking over without it being explicitly said.

In reality, this makes the Yankees’ decision easier and there won’t be an embarrassing demotion or perception that Robertson was unable to handle the job. At the time of Rivera’s injury, Soriano was the preferable choice to take over as the closer because he’s done it before and Robertson was far more valuable pitching the more important innings of the seventh and eighth. Making Robertson the closer was the chain-of-command maneuver in a Vice Presidential succession sort of way, but that doesn’t make it right. In the games that Soriano has closed, we’ve seen the pitcher that the Yankees paid all that money for. His body language, demeanor and conviction in his pitches are all entirely different than they were as the seventh inning man. He looks more comfortable because he is more comfortable. Yes, it’s mental; yes, it’s ego; yes, it’s missing the point that the ninth inning is, many times, not the inning in which the actual “save” is recorded, but these aren’t robots, they’re people. Soriano likes closing and was good at it. Robertson was good at being the set-up man.

There’s nothing wrong with that.

Once Robertson returns, the Yankees would be foolish to make him the closer again—that’s if they ever did in the first place.

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Hamilton’s Poised For A Run At The Home Run Record, But Which One?

Posted on May 15, 2012 by admin

Josh Hamilton‘s home run binge is making a run at the major league record a legitimate possibility.

The question is, which record? Is it 61 or 73?

Given the retrospective knowledge that Mark McGwire was using steroids as he achieved his massive power display that led to him hitting 70 home runs in 1998 and the allegations that have followed Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds as they hit 66 and 73 respectively, is Hamilton going to be after Bonds’s record? Or will he be judged as the “clean” home run king if he beats Roger Maris’s 61?

It’s ironic that someone with Hamilton’s history of substance abuse has the word “clean” next to him in a context other than recreational drugs and alcohol. There have never been any performance enhancing drug allegations levied against Hamilton. He’s a supremely talented and streaky individual who’s playing his home games in a hitter’s heaven. He’s not someone who would need PEDs to achieve those heights, validating a home run chase even more.

Hamilton hit 4 homers in one game against the Orioles last week and has 18 in the Rangers’ 36 games so far. The big obstacles in his path are staying healthy on and off the field and which record he’s chasing. By mid-summer, that’s going to heat up with the weather.

Hamilton has put up bigger power numbers at home than on the road. In his MVP season of 2010, he had a slash line of .390/.438/.750 at the Ballpark in Arlington with 22 homers in 69 games; on the road, it was .327/.382/.512 with 10 homers. The numbers at home and on the road were similar last season with a .912 OPS and 14 homers at home and .852 and 11 homers on the road.

So far in 2012, he has a 1.464 OPS with 11 homers on the road and a 1.159 OPS and 7 homers at home. Obviously he’s not going to keep that up, but he’s gotten off to this blazing start and is singing for his free agent supper. The injuries wouldn’t stop a team from paying Hamilton after the season; but his substance abuse problems could very well dissuade an interested team from paying him for his talent. There are real and understandable concerns that he’s a risk to return to alcohol and/or drugs if he’s lavished with a guaranteed contract of untold riches.

If he approaches or sets the record for home runs, there will be a team to pay him something close to the $214 million Prince Fielder got from the Tigers. Positives are easy to sell when signing a player. Negatives are seen as excuses to be cheap. Home runs are more entrenched in the public consciousness than his off-field woes and there will be one team to roll the dice.

Bonds, McGwire and Sosa all broke Maris’s record, but given what we know now, it’s not old-school whining to suggest that Maris is still the home run champion. There’s an argument for just that position. In the record books, Bonds is the home run king, but the fans do have a say in the matter.

Hamilton’s not hitting 74 home runs. But he might hit 62.

Which record will it be?

Let the debate begin.

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Ichiro: Beautiful to Watch and Functionally Empty

Posted on May 14, 2012 by admin

If anything exemplified the 2012 version of Ichiro Suzuki, it was one play in particular during Saturday’s Mariners’ 6-2 loss to the Yankees at Yankee Stadium.

In the bottom of the second inning with the Yankees leading 2-0 and Russell Martin on second base, Jayson Nix hit a fly ball to right field that barely cleared the wall for a 2-run homer. Ichiro sprinted to the wall, leaped and didn’t catch a catchable ball.

It wasn’t due to fan interference or that he missed it. He neglected to do one important thing: he didn’t reach up with his glove in a sincere effort to make the catch.

He did jump as if he were exerting himself to make a home run-robbing grab. Someone watching it once would’ve said that Ichiro tried and failed. Crashing into the wall added to the perception of all-out play.

Did he mistime his leap?

Did he forget where the wall was?

Or did he not even bother trying to catch the ball for fear of missing it and ruining his image?

It landed just over the wall in the first row and could’ve—maybe should’ve—been caught.

And it wasn’t.

As usual, with Ichiro, the aesthetic is more important than the result.

Ichiro is beautiful to watch. He has a sweet swing, amazing bat control and fundamentals nonpareil. His stolen base percentage is a career 82%, he rarely strikes out, has an accurate cannon for an arm and never looks out of control. He’s a great talent with statistics that will eventually result in Hall of Fame induction in North America. But that doesn’t make him a great player; it doesn’t make him a winning player. It certainly doesn’t make him worth the $17 million he’s earning this season.

Ichiro is a free agent after 2012. He’s so popular in Seattle and has achieved icon status that it’s hard to let him leave without a token offer, but they should. Realistically, they’re losing 90+ games a year with Ichiro, how much worse would they be without him? How much better could they be with a right fielder who hits the ball out of the park, who’s younger and doesn’t care about how he’s viewed?

As amazing as he seems when you watch Ichiro’s highlights and examine his overall numbers, it doesn’t supersede his decline. He no longer steals bases, his defense in right field isn’t as good as it was, he isn’t accruing the 250 hits he once did and he’s never hit for significant power. The Mariners have stopped placating Ichiro at the expense of what was best for the rest of the team. No reports of contract extension talks can be found anywhere. He’s going to be 39 in October, is playing for a team desperately needing offense and he’s no longer productive enough to justify keeping for his style or substance.

It’s time to move on.

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Josh Beckett Is Untradeable

Posted on May 13, 2012 by admin

It’s fine to speculate on the Red Sox making a dramatic move. They can send a message that the behavior that has made Josh Beckett a symbol of the team’s bad start will not be tolerated. But no one has addressed the question of who’s going to want him right now.

The answer is simple.

No one.

No one is taking that contract that (including this year) owes him $47.25 million through 2015.

If he was pitching well and with durability, someone would take him; but if that were the case, the Red Sox wouldn’t be 14-19 and in last place in the tough AL East.

They’re trapped on a treadmill and attached to one another.

The same personality traits that have made Beckett such a great post-season performer and good regular season starter have contributed to the problems he’s having now. He won’t back down. Ever. Nor will he fully admit contrition about anything.

Was he technically “right” when he refused to accept full blame for last season’s collapse due to he and his cohorts being out of shape and the beer and chicken consumption in the clubhouse during games?

Yes. He was “right” to imply that they’ve always done the same things and if it wasn’t a problem when the team was winning, it shouldn’t have been a problem when they were losing.

Was he, in theory, “right” to say that his golf outing was on an off day and it wasn’t anyone’s business even after he missed a scheduled start with a tight muscle in his back?

Yes. His day off is his business.

But Beckett misses the point on perception and placating the masses. There’s nothing wrong with saying “I’m sorry” whether it’s sincere or not. Beckett can’t bring himself to do that and, as a result, is under siege because of his arrogance and adherence to the misplaced concept that admitting wrongdoing is a sign of weakness.

It’s not.

It’s a sign of strength and his life would be far easier if he took the tack of accepting responsibility.

He won’t.

Trade speculation is a dead end. He’s staying in Boston not because of beer, chicken, golf or public ridicule. He’s staying in Boston because he’s making a lot of money and has been, at best, inconsistent. He’s pitched well in four of his six starts this season (his golf results are unknown), but teams don’t want that contract and they don’t need the aggravation. The Red Sox aren’t going to get much for him and trading him would put forth the image of giving up on the season—something they will not do until August, if at all.

This cycle will go on and on and the only thing that can help Beckett and the Red Sox is if he starts pitching well. If that happens, options will open. Until then, they’re stuck with one another.

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Bryce Harper’s Tantrum

Posted on May 12, 2012 by admin

In a Mötley Crüe retrospective, lead singer Vince Neil recounted how he threw a hissy fit because his preferred mustard hadn’t been provided for his sandwich. He broke the jar against the wall, it exploded and he wound up cutting his hand so badly that he severed an artery, tendons and nerves and almost cut a finger off completely. He called it his “Spinal Tap” moment in honor of the deadly accurate satirical heavy metal band of the same name.

Bryce Harper had his Spinal Tap moment last night when, during an 0 for 5 performance in the Nationals’ 7-3 win over the Reds in Cincinnati, he slammed his bat against the runway wall, it rebounded and hit him near the left eye. He needed 10 stitches to close a cut—ESPN Story.

He was beyond lucky.

The bat could’ve hit him in the eye and ended his career. Easily.

Is this cause for more ridicule on the 19-year-old or is it a moment of anger gone wrong?

Harper’s been called arrogant. His life-story is laced with exaggerations like passing his GED without studying, and made-for-public-consumption assertions such as his favorite players being Pete Rose and Mickey Mantle. There have been heavily viewed YouTube incidents of self-involved behavior from the minor leagues. When let out of his cage to do interviews without filter and cliché, he’s come across as obnoxious.

But he’s 19.

In spite of all his talents, that should never be forgotten.

In general, 19-year-olds are arrogant and obnoxious.

Amid all the expectations and eager anticipation of his first meltdown, he’s also shown an amazing talent for the game and baseball-savvy beyond his years. Cole Hamels intentionally drilled him with a fastball and Harper, rather than do the teenage tough guy thing by glaring at Hamels and possibly starting a brawl, went to first base without complaint. Once he got to third base, he stole home on a Hamels pickoff attempt of the runner on first base.

He won that battle and respect throughout the league for handling it right.

It would be a bigger deal if there weren’t players and managers who’ve done similarly absurd things when they were twice Harper’s age (and more) and been lauded for their intensity.

Lou Piniella demolished the old Yankee Stadium water cooler with his foot.

Paul O’Neill tells endless stories about the things he’s done in fits of anger.

Larry Bowa demolished a urinal in Philadelphia and blamed Jay Johnstone for it.

If Harper was behaving in an overt, on-field manner as one of his comparable talents—Gregg Jefferies—did when he was a Mets’ rookie by flinging helmets every time he grounded out, he’d need to be pulled aside and told in no uncertain terms to knock it off. He didn’t. He did this in the the runway where players go to vent their frustrations. In this case, his frustrations vented back and he hurt himself.

He won’t do it again.

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Amaro Will Double Down

Posted on May 11, 2012 by admin

In this MLBTradeRumors posting linking a Jim Salisbury piece on CSNPhilly.com, Phillies’ GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is quoted as implying that there’s a possibility that the Phillies could be sellers at the trading deadline rather than the big ticket buyers they’ve been over the past five years.

In that time, the Phillies acquired Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Hunter Pence. Amaro is in on anyone and everyone and is willing to gut the farm system to get them.

The 2012 Phillies are ravaged by injuries and playing terribly. Could Amaro really decide to make wholesale changes by dealing Shane Victorino and Cole Hamels?

Forget it.

If he did, he wouldn’t get a ton for either. In fact, somewhat surprisingly, he’d extract more for Victorino than he would for Hamels because Victorino would be an easier signing to keep. Hamels wants to get paid and an interested team would have to give up the prospects to make it worth the Phillies’ while, simultaneously aware of what it’s going to cost to sign Hamels as a free agent.

It’s far more likely that Amaro doubles down and tries to fix the club’s problems by trading for a bat and/or bullpen arm (Carlos Lee, Denard Span, Carlos Quentin if he ever plays, Brandon League); or signing someone (Oswalt) than for him to concede the season.

Amaro tried the “win now and build for the future” approach when he traded away Lee in the series of trades that brought Roy Halladay and several prospects back to the Phillies in December of 2009. It hasn’t worked out yet.

At mid-season 2010 with the club floundering at 48-46 and 7 games out of first place on July 21st, there was talk that pending free agent Jayson Werth would be traded with a deal sending him to the Rays supposedly in place.

Fate stepped in as Victorino got hurt and, with no other capable centerfielder on the roster, they had to keep Werth.

Under siege for having traded Lee, Amaro took the unusual step of essentially admitting his mistake and bolstered the starting rotation by trading for Oswalt.

From there, they went on a 49-19 tear to finish at 97-65 and win the NL East again. They lost in the NLCS to the Giants.

The Phillies are still selling out their games. With the extra Wild Card, their starting pitching and the eventual returns of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, Amaro won’t toss the season unless they’re 20 games under .500 as the trading deadline approaches.

That’s not going to happen.

There won’t be a sell-off. In fact, Amaro is probably willing to deal the Phillies’ remaining marketable prospects (Domonic Brown, Phillippe Aumont, Trevor May) to get help.

Considering the advanced age of their roster and the rapidly closing window to win with this current group, it makes no sense to build for the future. They’re heading for a long lull of rebuilding. There’s no reason to exacerbate it by giving up on 2012.

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Posted in All Star Game, Ballparks, CBA, Cy Young Award, Draft, Fantasy/Roto, Free Agents, Games, Hall Of Fame, History, Hot Stove, MLB Trade Deadline, MLB Waiver Trades, MVP, Management, Media, MiLB, Paul Lebowitz's 2012 Baseball Guide, Players, Playoffs, Prospects, Spring Training, Stats, Trade Rumors, World Series | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment